The Problem with Statistics

Dear Book Author:

I read your book.  Thanks.  It was interesting.

I work with numbers a lot.  That said, I have discovered that there are many ways to go wrong with numbers.  I know, having gone wrong, and seen others go wrong, a lot.

I know you spent over 8 years on this issue, and I have spent the last month trying to figure out the nuances of the US divorce statistics.  As you acknowledge, this is not as straight-forward as it might seem.  Every married couple has potential for divorce as long as both of them are alive.  I agree that the common divorce statistic or 50% of all marriages end in divorce, is mostly speculation.  

I understand that a much lower divorce rate would be great news about marriage. I have also published a book, and as soon as it came out, I began to worry about mistakes I might have made.  I have marked one of my copies with numerous things I will change in the next edition.  Likewise, I understand that you have a vested interest in defending your findings against all arguments.

 In short, I wish you were right, but it sure doesn't look that way to me.  You claim, understandably, that the Census Bureau shows that 72% of married folk are still married to the same spouse, suggesting a divorce rate of less than 28%.  You claim it must be considerably less than 28% due to the marriages ended in death of a spouse, and this sounds good to me, if I could believe it.

I know that in the back of the book you address some obvious complications.  But for some of these, you ignore their ramifications.  Here are some things you did NOT seem to take into account on marriage-divorce calculations:

1. Cohabitation.  People who co-habitate never divorce, because they never had a legal marriage, and in most cases didn't marry for that very reason-- no marriage= no divorce.  You argue that co-habitants eventually get married.  Perhaps they do marry, but they don't necessarily marry the person with whom they cohabited.  What is your basis for ignoring these?
2. Annulments.  Whereas, again these technically aren't divorces, they are the equivalent.  The numbers aren't large, but deserve to be counted.
3. Multiple marriages.  A person marrying 3 times has at least two divorces (unless they are Mormon- joke).  Yes but it's one person.  Remember, we are counting divorces, not people.
4. Separations (long term ones).  Again, these aren't divorces, but they aren't exactly "good news" for marriages.

So, is the divorce rate 50%?  No, I don't think so, but it is likely to be closer to 50% than to 25%.  Does anyone know the real number?  Not as far as I can tell.  

Again, as an author, I don’t expect you to do anything but defend your stats.  As a Christian I feel I need to let you know of my objections, and ask you to perhaps caveat your views a bit.

I have seen one principle that we Christians ought to remember.  Countering bad information with good information is useful; countering bad information with equally bad information is worse than leaving it alone.

Divorce is a terrible thing.  Christians ought to do all we can to counter it, first inside the Church, but also outside it.  "I hate divorce."  G^d tells us (Mal 2:16).  We ought to do likewise.

Blessings,

And a child will lead them

On 4th of July we got free tickets to the Tuscaloosa concert and fireworks at the outdoor pavilion.  It was a beautiful night, unusually cool for July in Alabama.  We took Michael and Kelly and Parker (7 y.o.) and Issac (5 (y.o.) along.

The symphony did a good job of mixing classical oldies and more recent pop works.  The Director was personable and well-spoken.  They gave an apropos recognition to each branch of the military.

After a good concert and very nice fireworks display.  Brenda looked over and Parker had his head in his hands and his eyes closed.  Brenda was afraid he was upset about something.

"Parker, are you okay?  Is something wrong?"  Brenda asked sweetly.

"I'm just thanking G^d that I get to see real fireworks.  This is the best day of my life!" Parker responded.

"And he said: 'Truly I tell you, unless you change and become like little children, you will never enter the kingdom of heaven.'" Jesus said in Matt 18:3.

One old church, on top of an older Church, on top of...

One of the interesting things we got to see in Rome was one old church, on top of an older Church, on top of a pagan temple dating to the first century.  It reminds me of Guatemala, where much younger (than Roman) Christian churches were deliberately built on top of pagan worship sites.

The top Roman church, The Church of San Clemente, was beautiful, and like most Italian churches had some beautiful art.

 Here is some of the old tile floor.  We couldn't take picts of the art.

 This is some graffitti on the wall in an old first-centruy apartment.  I didn't do it!

There is an interesting parallel with the human condition.  All Christians are building G^d's temple on top of pagan ruins.  For those who came into relationship with the Christ at an early age, the pagan temple is small and humble.  For those coming to Christ in their late 20's, that pagan temple may well be elaborate, as well developed as the one under San Clemente.

Another parallel exists.  The Christian Church, San Clemente, is impressive, extensive, holy.  You would NEVER know of that old temple under the Church.  For most of us, that old temple crops up from time to time.

As the contemporary song goes,  " The old is gone, the new is come.  What You (Christ) complete, is completely done."

Thanks be to G^d, that the old is gone, that it is completely done, regardless of what we may think.

Enjoy G^d's forgiveness and love today.

An Electrifying Experience

My family was recently at a local, unnamed, swimming complex.  As we lazily floated around the lazy river, I looked up and noticed...
an electric pump positioned about 3 feet from the edge of the water.

"So what?" you ask.

Electricity and water do NOT mix well, especially with 100 or more humans in said water.  Should some child accidentally pull on the suction hose and pull the wheel-mounted electric pump into the water, it could kill a lot of folks.

I contacted the pool supervisor, who didn't seem to understand my concern in the least.  I asked that she notify her supervisor of my safety concern for the lives of their patrons.

When NOTHING happened for over an hour, I went back to the supervisor.  Her boss had no concerns re killing patrons.

I asked if I could call the BIG supervisor, a long-time friend.  He said he would check, and sure enough the plug was finally pulled... until I left the pool.

I called big boss again, to no avail.

I was so worked up that it was hard to calm down and sleep that night.

I contacted via email a safety expert friend to make sure I wasn't crazy.

Nope, not crazy - at least about this particular issue.

Ultimately I contacted a safety expert who has jurisdiction over this facility, and he shut down the problem pending investigation.

The problem is still unresolved, but it did illuminate one glaring flaw (of many) in my own character.

I was MUCH more concerned about the temporal lives of strangers, than I was about the spiritual eternal death of these same folk.

Did you get that?  How can it be that I care more for this short 75-85 years than for their eternal life?

How about you?

Why Growing Old Isn't so Bad

For most Americans, youth is where it's at.  We idolize the young.  We try to look youthful.  I understand all that, but consider that being "elderly" has some benefits too.  Consider these:

1) As an old-timer, I am MUCH less concerned about what others think of me.  You think I "am a religious nut", Doesn't faze me.  You think I am a "trouble maker", okay, maybe you're right.  Hey, I am just happy that you are thinking about me, even if it's negative.

2) I worry MUCH less about my long-term health.  I figure I have only another 20-25 years anyway, so why worry?

3) Our kids are out on their own, doing very well for their families.  So, no more:

• braces
• babysitters
• health insurance
• tuition
• school books
• gas
• autos
• auto insurance.

 4) More stories to tell.  After 64 years, I have LOTS of stories.  Almost any topic can elicit a story.  Not saying these stories are interesting, just saying they exist.

5) Made most of the mistakes already.  Not saying we have learned to avoid mistakes, just saying that we have experienced most of them, and OUGHT to know better.

6) Worse memory.  The good news is that we can tell the stories in #4 over and over, and enjoy them just as much on the 40th telling (not so much for the audience though).

So take heart.  If you live long enough, you too can enjoy... being old.

³¹ The hoary head is a crown of glory; It shall be found in the way of righteousness.  Prov 16:31

Part of a Team

If the Lego Movie teaches us nothing else,
"Everything is awesomeeeeeee; everything is cool, when you're part of a team."

There is a lot of truth there.

I have been fortunate to be part of some memorable teams:
7th grade Canton (GA) "Greenie" football,
8th grade  "Greenie" basektball,
9th-12th grade Cherokee High "Warrior" Wrestling team,
The USNA Brigade of Midshipmen,
 Crew 13 of Tacamo of the USN,
Exercise Science Faculty member (at least for part of my tenure at UA),
CRU Faculty Commons Writing team (last week).

This latter group was one of the most interesting.  four of us, plus a wife who was a retired English teacher labored hard for 2.5 days.  To my immense surprise we completed the writing of all 34 needed essays, and triple-editing of over 20 of these.

Which is to say we wrote about 17k words total, and 4250 each, in 2.5 days. 

If you are a writer you think, "that's not so remarkable".

To which I reply, "You have never tried to write in a group with 4 different opinions, 4 different philosophies, and 4 different styles, have you?".

We prayed for unity... and prayed a prayer of thanksgiving when the task was finished.

You may not be at all impressed, but I feel as though a miracle was performed right before our eyes.

Thank you L^rd for your grace and provision demonstrated once again.

Conformity

I may have mentioned on last year's blog about Italy that every rendition of the Crucified Christ, whether painting or statue depicts the Christ with a wound in his right side.

I noticed this again this year, and mentioned it to several folks.  It didn't seem to bother them nearly so much as it bothered me.

Why?

Well I studied the crucifixion some several years ago when we published a scientific paper describing the physiology of crucifixion.  I read quite a bit about it, and visualized the "coup de grace" spear wound on the left side, the side where the major part of the heart is located.

If you look carefully at a real mammal heart, you notice that the heart is really a small right chamber, which only pumps to the lungs (Which are close by) partly enclosed by a left heart which is substantially bigger because it pumps blood to every part of the body, even the toes.

The Romans crucified large groups.  Most everybody seeks the easiest means for doing a job, and killing a suffering suspended victim is most easily done by a simple spear thrust to the heart.  The ruptured heart rapidly results in the demise of the victim, to everyone's relief.

The ribcage and especially the sternum protect the heart, but not from a spear thrust on the left side that enters from beneath the lowest rib- especially easily done for a suspended victim up on a cross.

So, these artistic depictions of the crucified Christ bother a physiologist.  I noted it on every art piece, except one.  Finally,

 in the Vatican, I spot the one "correct" depiction.

I like the painting, in that it shows a muscular, fit, lean Jesus.  I like it because it is uniquely showing the "correct" left-side stab.

Does it matter?  Not really, but as I have said before, this is the most important event in all of history, so it is worth thinking about, a least a bit.

Right side stab or left?

That's not the key issue.  The key issue is, The Christ died for us.  What are we doing to say "thank you"?